Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
3+ upsets in the Sweet 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf5a4901ff0acfd43bc0b646ae31cb78c4c6fad873e40c76e37f425ba6148574
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4baf…b22bbacked Yes | 44c | 1,680$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.4 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 15cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked No | 56c | 1,130$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.2 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Yes | 42c | 967.08$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.18 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 62c | 934.69$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.07 | 98 | 33.7%33 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 70c | 354.13$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.05 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 42c | 250.11$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 105$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…28e5backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed No | 56c | 98.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d8…8274backed No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 56c | 30.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671e…6b05backed Yes | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.