South American Leagues · resolved market
CS Cienciano vs. CA Lanús: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf78eadbfee668e41454397bd40d5203a623bf590a91b021af3302af6ce0594a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 41c | 2,371$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.86 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 2,109$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.94 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 58c | 650.7$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.97 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 565$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.02 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under | 67c | 499.99$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.99 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f39…311abacked Over | 49c | 471.16$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.29 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 23c | 229.47$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.38 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 65c | 204.69$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…73fabacked Over | 70c | 142.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 51c | 115.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 331 | 52.6%174 W · 157 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc39…398abacked Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab7d…d04bbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 27c | 70.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 29c | 58.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 59c | 54.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 32c | 53.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…1597backed Under | 41c | 47.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 28c | 47.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 67c | 43.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 57c | 42.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 71c | 35.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4199…b1c3backed Under | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 46c | 28.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Under | 52c | 23.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 53c | 21.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CS Cienciano vs. CA Lanús: O/U 3.5this page
- CS Cienciano vs. CA Lanús: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. CA Lanús: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CS Cienciano vs. CA Lanús: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- CS Cienciano vs. CA Lanús: CA Lanús 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CS Cienciano vs. CA Lanús: O/U 0.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. CA Lanús: O/U 1.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. CA Lanús: O/U 2.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. CA Lanús: O/U 4.5Under won
- CS Cienciano vs. CA Lanús: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CS Cienciano (-1.5)CS Cienciano won
- Spread: CS Cienciano (-2.5)CS Cienciano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.