Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfc9523aa162cbe9021f6f8f3e358967be45aaa62388500cde11d8cb19d40a99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carstenszof Carstensz, InterActive Philippines
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked InterActive Philippines | 25c | 388.57$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.43 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…7fdfbacked Carstensz | 72c | 208.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed InterActive Philippines | 16c | 186.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed InterActive Philippines | 29c | 170.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed InterActive Philippines | 29c | 162.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…16d0backed InterActive Philippines | 21c | 143.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…441bbacked Carstensz | 72c | 138.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked InterActive Philippines | 12c | 132$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…2229backed InterActive Philippines | 25c | 118.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…fbbbbacked InterActive Philippines | 25c | 87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2661…6c28backed InterActive Philippines | 22c | 68.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked InterActive Philippines | 40c | 65.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Carstensz | 74c | 43.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d4…2f1ebacked Carstensz | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Carstensz | 73c | 40.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8106…bd36backed InterActive Philippines | 30c | 40.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Carstensz | 60c | 40.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Carstensz | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b86…5552backed Carstensz | 71c | 21.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2c…d0dfbacked Carstensz | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 WinnerCarstensz won
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 WinnerCarstensz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.