Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfeea0b12846422503aaa1e1c3f0bac198615e48163d650447dba274142344c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc34…e42dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,756$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 30c | 674.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 540.35$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…fe5fbacked No | 73c | 465.05$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.41 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa753…f297backed Yes | 50c | 382.5$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 26c | 325.89$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 299.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 242.25$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 43c | 242.23$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.01 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 180$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 23c | 172.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 46c | 135.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 76c | 122.42$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 113.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 110.79$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 75c | 103.25$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 67c | 93.65$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed No | 63c | 87.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 24c | 81.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec2…da99backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 58.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd387…33acbacked Yes | 38c | 53.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…70c4backed No | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…6561backed Yes | 35c | 39.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 74c | 39.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc76a…416ebacked Yes | 36c | 36.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341a…973dbacked Yes | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +74%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed No | 76c | 30.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…5b2ebacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 29.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dc…d8a4backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 75c | 18.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 74c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed No | 74c | 15.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.