Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Takuya Kumasaka vs Yuki Mochizuki
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd02da05b146fa2845bb80117821493e9e7f900e3a77930b5938b3271cbba5870
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Takuya Kumasakaof Takuya Kumasaka, Yuki Mochizuki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Yuki Mochizuki | 19c | 1,503$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.5 | 1,842 | 41%755 W · 1,087 L | -31.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yuki Mochizuki | 16c | 1,072$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.47 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yuki Mochizuki | 19c | 997.46$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.11 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yuki Mochizuki | 16c | 247.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yuki Mochizuki | 17c | 206.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Yuki Mochizuki | 25c | 112.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Takuya Kumasaka | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 962 | 55.8%537 W · 425 L | +21.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yuki Mochizuki | 21c | 59.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x103f…86dbbacked Yuki Mochizuki | 76c | 40.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 163 | 62%101 W · 62 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dd…13a2backed Takuya Kumasaka | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d70…ae13backed Yuki Mochizuki | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Takuya Kumasaka | 79c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Takuya Kumasaka | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,107 | 52.8%585 W · 522 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Takuya Kumasaka | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.