NFL · resolved market
Chiefs vs. Lions
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd065c173a6bffdc34729032db34910d0672b834bb2ebee10e835896f2d434342
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lionsof Chiefs, Lions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Chiefs | 1c | 16,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +209.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Chiefs | 71c | 7,902$5,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,630.62 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Chiefs | 1c | 7,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Lions | 32c | 3,452$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,353.72 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Chiefs | 73c | 3,000$2,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,190 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…9b31backed Chiefs | 73c | 2,055$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Lions | 28c | 2,000$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.24 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Lions | 28c | 1,947$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.03 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84de…b018backed Lions | 28c | 1,720$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Lions | 28c | 1,417$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.5 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Chiefs | 61c | 1,287$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.81 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Chiefs | 67c | 532$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.44 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Chiefs | 70c | 438$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.6 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…a975backed Chiefs | 69c | 345.51$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed Lions | 21c | 324.3$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Lions | 29c | 300$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb98…969dbacked Chiefs | 79c | 290.62$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Lions | 31c | 270.62$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.9 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb91f…e659backed Lions | 39c | 215$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.5 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…8839backed Chiefs | 79c | 208.86$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c23…6e68backed Lions | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked Chiefs | 71c | 160$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Lions | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Chiefs | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Lions | 13c | 102.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 114 | 7.9%9 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Lions | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…dda7backed Lions | 28c | 89.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Chiefs | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a59…5769backed Chiefs | 73c | 64.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Lions | 27c | 61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a6…2bb8backed Lions | 28c | 60.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +174.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Chiefs | 74c | 58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…b987backed Lions | 27c | 55.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…40d4backed Chiefs | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…30e6backed Lions | 31c | 52.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…b346backed Chiefs | 76c | 51.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…6501backed Lions | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…5334backed Chiefs | 73c | 46.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Chiefs | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…bf52backed Chiefs | 73c | 39.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3b…3934backed Chiefs | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…7c89backed Chiefs | 73c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…bb73backed Chiefs | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Chiefs | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.