Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-10-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd09e98df59c9b06313743f9fdd68332aef2f68b90c14e487ff691372699b1023
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 38c | 25,000$9,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,473.75 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 62c | 18,857$11,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,165.62 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 12,159$3,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,104.01 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Yes | 30c | 6,641$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989.84 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 33c | 2,527$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.15 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 63c | 1,784$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.14 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.29 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 21c | 699.21$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.36 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 61c | 618.46$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.6 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bae…e6c5backed Yes | 33c | 606.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed No | 68c | 597.17$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.17 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.24per pick | 69cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 12c | 527.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 5c | 519.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 10c | 456$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +285.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 35c | 441.44$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.5 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…bcf4backed No | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 60cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 67c | 285$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cf…5ab8backed Yes | 37c | 202.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 37c | 149.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 35c | 145$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed Yes | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…8ce8backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…d153backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…2c08backed No | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 63c | 91.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb48…19b3backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 36c | 70.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989b…8864backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 32c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 25c | 54.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…8166backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf31…2931backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 63c | 32.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 63c | 23.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…333bbacked No | 65c | 17.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-10-18?this page
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-18?Yes won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.