Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a6e86a53148ec9cf0374b3432a99264e0b298b770d19510e3d63ca8a31ca7bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 43c | 30,000$12,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,100 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 57c | 22,868$13,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,106.67 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 57c | 4,551$2,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,607.8 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 57c | 3,286$1,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,873.15 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 39c | 2,805$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.1 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed Yes | 44c | 2,725$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.84 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 63c | 2,326$1,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.58 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 59c | 1,574$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.66 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…f3afbacked Yes | 41c | 1,222$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 37c | 1,175$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.29 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 43c | 773.98$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.17 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 38c | 645.16$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 62c | 645.16$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 41c | 609.76$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.76 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 43c | 581.4$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.4 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 11c | 574.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 40c | 510.63$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 60c | 501$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.6 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 38c | 492.57$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.73 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 61c | 412.05$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.04 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 42c | 404.76$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.76 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked Yes | 39c | 362.05$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 54c | 343.44$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.69 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…c62dbacked Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 43c | 231.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…bdafbacked Yes | 40c | 193.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed Yes | 70c | 142.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…4f68backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 41c | 102.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…0f6ebacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…884fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 42c | 95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca0…140ebacked Yes | 41c | 85.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked No | 24c | 82.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 39c | 81.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0148…daf8backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…30b1backed Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +8.0wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 60c | 57.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…51bcbacked Yes | 42c | 54.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac5…28d4backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 44c | 53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 44c | 52.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaed…f6a0backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ba…134ebacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…70fdbacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 75c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 29c | 38.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 65c | 35.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…16bcbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c637backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 60c | 22.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…a88bbacked No | 64c | 21.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 55c | 21.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-18?this page
- Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?No won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-10-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.