Fifa International · resolved market
Will Mexico win on 2025-10-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0c81f50eb9393f5a79d5718baa36010c2a572f08d778ddeae5d2ed13a5b8428
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 27c | 2,394$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.49 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 73c | 2,286$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.17 | 747 | 52.2%390 W · 357 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 69c | 845$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.26 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 31c | 766.92$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.74 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6006…cae5backed Yes | 30c | 333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…cb95backed No | 71c | 328.33$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.22 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed No | 72c | 276.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.77 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfb…2398backed Yes | 27c | 249.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed No | 73c | 233.33$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f48…cd03backed Yes | 27c | 233.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 158.01$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 76c | 126.54$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…a04ebacked Yes | 20c | 111.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed No | 72c | 103.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeae…214abacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ab…44dfbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7afb…ff15backed Yes | 29c | 45.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 27c | 38.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 77c | 36.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…fd63backed No | 71c | 28.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mexico win on 2025-10-11?this page
- Will Colombia win on 2025-10-11?Yes won
- Will Mexico vs. Colombia end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.