TailMyPicks

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Olympics · resolved market

Will Martin Loewstroem Nyenget (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,816
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,520

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,816 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Yes2c15,000$300 inLost-$300825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-55.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94bc…8ce0backed Yes6c453.04$27 inLost-$26.692040%8 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes4c443.06$18 inLost-$18.471233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c382.27$17 inLost-$17.042448.2%20 W · 224 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-61.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e28…e5efbacked Yes9c372.04$33 inLost-$33.09933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes5c289.44$14 inLost-$14.477627.6%21 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes5c251.12$13 inLost-$12.591910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-82%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a56…695bbacked No80c40$32 inWon+$8683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick68cpaid+36.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.