Olympics · resolved market

Will Einer Hedegart (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e072799c8de668a184343f29b88aabae1640e80eccfa38039fe6e4bfe29c64b

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 13, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $18,703
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $17,616

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,703 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Olympics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	7,407$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.11	244	8.2%20 W · 224 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdb…75dbbacked Yes	6c	450.46$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	17cpaid	-81%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes	45c	392.13$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.46	76	27.6%21 W · 55 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes	42c	347.92$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.69	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-2.8wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No	51c	322.28$164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.61	61	23%14 W · 47 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae6b…4fa8backed Yes	49c	320.9$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.8	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed No	58c	305$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.1	47	36.2%17 W · 30 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e28…e5efbacked Yes	46c	248.73$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.06	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Yes	34c	224$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.16	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	46cpaid	+111.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5044…f67fbacked Yes	45c	220.41$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.18	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	40cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No	51c	208.35$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.44	51	51%26 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a4c…8138backed Yes	58c	180.84$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.63	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ed…de73backed Yes	44c	180$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.95	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No	47c	145.24$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.5	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d80…07d4backed Yes	46c	142.24$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.77	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.30per pick	50cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked Yes	46c	137.86$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.72	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f49…d8edbacked Yes	53c	136.93$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.64	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.18per pick	62cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes	68c	119.46$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.26	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+46.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	45c	112.88$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.64	118	58.5%69 W · 49 L	+6.9wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1983…eb99backed Yes	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	-4.7wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No	38c	95$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.99	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f9…86ecbacked Yes	33c	87.42$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.85	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+2.1wins	+0.26per pick	24cpaid	+86.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes	55c	83.29$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4896…4b46backed Yes	57c	74$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b62…8fe5backed No	55c	72.73$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.73	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-3.3wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Yes	38c	71$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.98	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe25a…00e6backed Yes	63c	63.89$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.22per pick	62cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a2b…2030backed No	56c	60$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.1	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.7wins	+0.29per pick	48cpaid	+49.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9629…f640backed Yes	48c	56.5$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.09	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked No	54c	49$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.54	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-82%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Yes	55c	45.89$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.44	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	67cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ad0…185dbacked Yes	70c	41.55$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked Yes	39c	40.71$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.75	69	42%29 W · 40 L	+7.2wins	+0.10per pick	32cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb26c…c307backed Yes	51c	39.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3786…d3fabacked Yes	46c	39$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.94	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed Yes	35c	37.14$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4970…13d6backed Yes	52c	32.98$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-52%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes	41c	30.35$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.42	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ae…ce30backed Yes	45c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94bc…8ce0backed Yes	38c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a0…c18cbacked Yes	53c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	67cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes	49c	29.02$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.16	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa551…9626backed Yes	61c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed No	54c	19$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.74	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-2.0wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Einer Hedegart (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event