Olympics · resolved market
Will Johannes Klaebo (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4028cec645e394703229c069d20a24253e2ace623b063d7946f1168981470b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a3…63afbacked Yes | 58c | 1,297$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Yes | 33c | 1,058$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.51 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…7e88backed Yes | 33c | 997.89$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c7…efc2backed Yes | 36c | 996.21$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +174.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 67c | 933.62$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.12 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 40c | 929.69$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.79 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82da…da33backed Yes | 47c | 632.28$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…1aeabacked No | 59c | 572.61$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.94 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b62…8fe5backed Yes | 34c | 474.15$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.15 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 55c | 472.71$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.48 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 66c | 434.94$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.01 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Yes | 31c | 411$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.22 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 62c | 398.2$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked Yes | 61c | 383.71$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.54 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f80…2804backed No | 70c | 338$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b70…ed51backed Yes | 51c | 294.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bc…8ce0backed No | 68c | 287.21$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…d384backed No | 64c | 266.23$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 75c | 250.59$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…7101backed Yes | 34c | 239.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +82%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d8…969ebacked No | 73c | 237.06$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4e…ce77backed Yes | 32c | 215.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 39c | 201.77$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.64 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 39c | 173.31$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.32 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked No | 61c | 168.27$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 67c | 167.9$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked No | 45c | 156.28$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…8597backed Yes | 40c | 130$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 70c | 123.42$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.82 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…ff9ebacked Yes | 30c | 117.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked No | 59c | 115.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked No | 61c | 111.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f6…d2c9backed Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf94b…94a7backed Yes | 37c | 107.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 22c | 100.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…a79fbacked Yes | 31c | 100.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4274…3d39backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe113…61acbacked Yes | 58c | 85.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd177…54c1backed Yes | 31c | 80.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 72c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…9287backed Yes | 32c | 69.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…1a79backed Yes | 31c | 66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 26c | 66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a56…695bbacked No | 72c | 65.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…f3e7backed Yes | 37c | 64.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Yes | 32c | 61.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc22d…5dbcbacked Yes | 46c | 60.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ad…70ccbacked Yes | 36c | 55.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +179.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…8746backed Yes | 45c | 55.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…783ebacked Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5d…76b0backed Yes | 42c | 46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…5378backed Yes | 37c | 45.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc07…a6d6backed Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 41c | 41.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…4a23backed Yes | 32c | 35.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe379…6960backed Yes | 35c | 29.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a8…8a9dbacked No | 65c | 29.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8306…65f9backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad0…185dbacked Yes | 47c | 23.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 56c | 19.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x840b…7a81backed Yes | 72c | 17.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Johannes Klaebo (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Einer Hedegart (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Florian Notz (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Friedrich Moch (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Gus Schumacher (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Harald Oestberg Amundsen (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Hugo Lapalus (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Martin Loewstroem Nyenget (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Martino Carollo (ITA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Mathis Desloges (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Niko Anttola (FIN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Victor Lovera (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.