Champions League · resolved market
Will four total goals be scored in regulation time?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0e5de4440442fd89419b341ce956ed229ea44349289998e08f52518c9220854
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 15c | 940$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ef…1212backed Yes | 19c | 533.89$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 17c | 439.49$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 15c | 402.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b6…f9d9backed Yes | 13c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd7…047abacked Yes | 15c | 246.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4fe9backed Yes | 14c | 221.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…e2fdbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 46c | 189$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.33 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fac…c572backed Yes | 15c | 129$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f56…89f7backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb81…d251backed Yes | 15c | 100.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea61…8f05backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 23cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will four total goals be scored in regulation time?this page
- Will eight or more total goals be scored in regulation time?No won
- Will five total goals be scored in regulation time?Yes won
- Will one total goal be scored in regulation time?No won
- Will seven total goals be scored in regulation time?No won
- Will six total goals be scored in regulation time?No won
- Will three total goals be scored in regulation time?No won
- Will two total goals be scored in regulation time?No won
- Will zero total goals be scored in regulation time?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.