Champions League · resolved market
Will three total goals be scored in regulation time?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95efd78c56e18723f238b372e449c898532836202de448a2b79db81e46da835f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8806…6a9bbacked Yes | 25c | 3,206$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 75c | 611.67$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.92 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a6…0585backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 56c | 316.65$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.05 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1e…49d9backed No | 75c | 270$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…9f18backed Yes | 23c | 257.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed No | 75c | 238.15$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.41 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2951…8f9fbacked No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…e2fdbacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 6c | 199.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 128 | 54.7%70 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 30c | 187.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…70adbacked Yes | 55c | 180.81$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fac…c572backed Yes | 24c | 129$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22d…ea45backed No | 75c | 115.06$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…9223backed Yes | 48c | 99.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 58c | 57.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 55c | 44.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8432…7216backed Yes | 79c | 25.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will three total goals be scored in regulation time?this page
- Will eight or more total goals be scored in regulation time?No won
- Will five total goals be scored in regulation time?Yes won
- Will four total goals be scored in regulation time?No won
- Will one total goal be scored in regulation time?No won
- Will seven total goals be scored in regulation time?No won
- Will six total goals be scored in regulation time?No won
- Will two total goals be scored in regulation time?No won
- Will zero total goals be scored in regulation time?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.