Weather · resolved market
Will Oregon reach D4 (Exceptional Drought) by August 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0e66191853681730e4a0cfbf71b1ee9c73d8c222e2cb139bdd8147886b38075
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked No | 64c | 8,398$5,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,334.56 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cd…dc3fbacked Yes | 36c | 8,359$3,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,310.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +174.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a60…6db9backed Yes | 77c | 548.71$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 32c | 134.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ef…4535backed No | 56c | 130$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed No | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 16c | 86.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7438…b741backed No | 17c | 71.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b30…100fbacked No | 62c | 38.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…843cbacked No | 57c | 35.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…c15fbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…7202backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…8ba8backed No | 62c | 19.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked No | 65c | 17.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc4…be57backed No | 63c | 16.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.