TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,855
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,806

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,855 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7879…3653backed No61c1,700$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.9742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+126.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked No2c1,279$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4443021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes36c709.6$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.416,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No19c692.97$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.611,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6580…6fa8backed Yes35c599.99$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.997628.9%22 W · 54 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes36c534.36$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.8524932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed No2c511.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7485330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No13c488.28$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.681,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No27c410.5$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8588628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No12c403.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes39c369$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.8111436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes43c325.7$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.9870133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes31c318.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.9717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4e…1f10backed No77c286.81$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.467070%49 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes38c285.37$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.751,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes38c268.32$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.4132548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No64c200.73$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes38c200$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1254233.3%14 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes32c200$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.54,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8386050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8454…c8e4backed No66c172.66$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.776654.5%36 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes32c168.15$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.6161929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a2…5c58backed Yes38c162.38$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.34425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa654…58c9backed Yes38c147.55$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.555343.4%23 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes23c143.2$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.811,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes58c116.23$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3357659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9dd…1870backed No62c110.81$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.813542.9%15 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes32c108.97$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.038220.7%17 W · 65 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcaaf…58e8backed No76c104.09$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.74425%1 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick73cpaid-64.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes59c101.1$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.111546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes26c99.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9932444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No62c91.46$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.031,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes29c90.87$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.843,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes35c81.91$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9142438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No33c76.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes31c73.67$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.883,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes38c70$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.632044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No63c61.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.183,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa864…abf3backed Yes34c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick66cpaid+45.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes25c58.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5220025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No66c56.72$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4356265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No68c55$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.444448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ab8…0397backed No74c53.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405644.6%25 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed Yes37c53.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9895852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes38c52.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.681,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes35c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5711956.3%67 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3554232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed No70c49$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3618550.3%93 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44c9…ca41backed Yes42c48.02$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.02850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes43c46.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5830141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No66c44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9254143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No47c43.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.348,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12c3…b054backed Yes33c42.2$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.25742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+46.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8319…96f4backed Yes36c41.63$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.66717.9%12 W · 55 L-10.9wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-56.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x12b2…74b8backed No65c38.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258968.5%61 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf29d…2d25backed Yes41c38$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.41361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+49.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes54c37.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2940935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1d6…318bbacked Yes32c36.34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+209.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33e0…bf1abacked Yes49c36.05$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.362944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes44c36.04$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0433839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b48…fcf0backed Yes34c32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212250%11 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+56%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x90c5…fb31backed Yes38c31.58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5816944.4%75 W · 94 L+18.5wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+32.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3334…b05ebacked No67c31.34$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4042…56e5backed No74c30.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd8a…edf9backed No75c30.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.87638.2%29 W · 47 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No65c30.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7458349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b9a…b06abacked Yes39c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.31933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes48c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.610562.9%66 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes50c26.89$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5310780.4%86 W · 21 L+21.9wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+37.4%equal weight68+0.17 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No70c26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2142857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x950f…a65bbacked No74c24.53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64bd…82cfbacked No64c23.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1518761%114 W · 73 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No62c22.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.291,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8638…2d36backed No70c20.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5112954.3%70 W · 59 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d9c…1450backed No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1414251.4%73 W · 69 L-21.9wins-0.15per pick67cpaid-29.8%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x8682…24e5backed No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked No74c16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8418255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No66c15.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.381,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked No68c14.91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0754143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf05c…9cafbacked No80c12.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-51.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.