Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x088338634d540eb3a60efc2d6062310ecc20ab38b74a117349722b58aafe1490
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,888 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25bf…63b0backed Yes | 0c | 3,036$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed No | 72c | 2,100$1,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 4c | 1,161$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 63c | 1,117$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.58 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed Yes | 3c | 1,078$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4c…631cbacked No | 44c | 700$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.04 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked No | 34c | 400$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.45 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 398$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.61 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 28c | 350$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.71 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 58c | 348.08$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.42 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 340.95$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.39 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 29c | 327.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 250.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes | 61c | 246.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 48c | 210.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 52c | 190.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.66 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 27c | 153.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 54c | 149.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 27c | 146.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 70c | 143.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 132.73$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 23c | 114.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 109.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 102.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 26c | 100.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 51c | 98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 30c | 97.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 52c | 95.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 94.39$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 41c | 93.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 91.28$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 34c | 81.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 69c | 79.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 58c | 76.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 27c | 74.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 27c | 72.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 72.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 69c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…98c8backed No | 39c | 70.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 28c | 69.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 25c | 63.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 61.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2f…d027backed Yes | 50c | 60.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…b05ebacked Yes | 51c | 58.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x684f…cef7backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 26c | 56.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed No | 78c | 51.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 55c | 51.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 22c | 50.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…abaebacked Yes | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 27c | 48.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 31c | 46.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 49c | 44.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 26c | 42.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 41.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…24e5backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 35c | 39.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 43c | 35.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 68c | 33.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 59c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 27.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 72c | 22.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 21.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…be86backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae3…ef70backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.