Ligue 1 · resolved market
Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0f7eb20470b8deb9ae0e529f8acf9229ae10ea2cb97c615f4fcbcbac21d08ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AJ Auxerreof Lille OSC, AJ Auxerre
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Lille OSC | 24c | 2,022$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.41 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Lille OSC | 24c | 600.41$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.23 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed AJ Auxerre | 76c | 578.88$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.35 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed AJ Auxerre | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Lille OSC | 26c | 133.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed AJ Auxerre | 75c | 101$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Lille OSC | 13c | 81.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Lille OSC | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked AJ Auxerre | 75c | 61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Lille OSC | 27c | 52.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed AJ Auxerre | 74c | 51.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Lille OSC | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Lille OSC | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed AJ Auxerre | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed AJ Auxerre | 77c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed AJ Auxerre | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)this page
- AJ Auxerre vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AJ Auxerre vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AJ Auxerre vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5Over won
- AJ Auxerre vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.