Ligue 1 · resolved market
AJ Auxerre vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1269d20d4b3ab9f84bdf5b87a5c1026453bb7d92b2e061e57c5281108d2a83b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85df…9124backed Under | 3c | 3,055$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.42 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 64c | 1,814$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.62 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 288.44$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.35 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…7ba6backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 12c | 168.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.97 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 25c | 117.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.03 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 75c | 75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 77c | 67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Over | 55c | 50.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked Under | 75c | 42.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3580…a621backed Over | 38c | 42.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 54c | 37.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…132abacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…6a84backed Under | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…22c4backed Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AJ Auxerre vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5this page
- AJ Auxerre vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AJ Auxerre vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AJ Auxerre vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)AJ Auxerre won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.