Ligue 1 · resolved market
AJ Auxerre vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x083dffc671a391e57c47df9299f18032ac3d64c6923827e49869a73bde46eacb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 6,773$3,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,814.33 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 57c | 3,333$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…9124backed Under | 2c | 2,699$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 56c | 1,593$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 55c | 1,579$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.7 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 45c | 1,556$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.56 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.7wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 56c | 1,168$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.29 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 64c | 1,094$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.75 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Over | 51c | 727.19$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.32 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 38c | 346.98$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.13 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 46c | 338.31$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.81 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61b2…d3c9backed Under | 58c | 301.72$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 44c | 266.67$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.33 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Under | 58c | 191.38$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 49c | 179$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 49c | 179$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 49c | 156$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…ef23backed Over | 63c | 152.46$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…7ba6backed Over | 68c | 147.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 177 | 56.5%100 W · 77 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…5aa1backed Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 48c | 84.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 46c | 83.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Under | 57c | 69.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 49c | 67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 49c | 67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 66.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 41c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 49c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Under | 49c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Under | 49c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Under | 49c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Under | 49c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 49c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb3…ae1ebacked Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Over | 51c | 21.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…22c4backed Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…cc15backed Over | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AJ Auxerre vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5this page
- AJ Auxerre vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AJ Auxerre vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AJ Auxerre vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)AJ Auxerre won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.