Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd11f39b58c10c7c9d66c469f9db012c9970781c5b0148b84f8d17f204af75268
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 2,295$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.97 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 79c | 281.28$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 63c | 277.59$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.96 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 5c | 244.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…2c45backed No | 12c | 242.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff78…df44backed Yes | 62c | 218.82$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.73 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +16.2wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 50c | 205.66$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.39 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc83…696ebacked Yes | 67c | 203.11$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 40c | 199.6$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 74c | 188.25$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 75c | 174.77$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 22c | 167.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 57c | 150.71$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 138.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 44c | 133.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked Yes | 71c | 133.41$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb400…4e85backed Yes | 74c | 133$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 77c | 118.24$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 26c | 108.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 64c | 108.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…d00cbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b2…9cf8backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 60c | 88.36$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 87.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 73.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 73c | 69.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…722ebacked Yes | 47c | 63.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 57.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed3…0fe3backed No | 39c | 56.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 42c | 55.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 57c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…a4e9backed No | 31c | 48.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 26c | 44.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 42c | 44.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 28c | 42.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 79c | 37.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed Yes | 69c | 33.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 79c | 31.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…771fbacked Yes | 78c | 30.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…634cbacked Yes | 67c | 29.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 72c | 29.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 71c | 29.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 71c | 28.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…fa55backed No | 58c | 27.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 75c | 26.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31f1…35eebacked Yes | 76c | 26.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 43c | 25.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 60c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked No | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed No | 56c | 21.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed No | 57c | 20.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…6863backed Yes | 79c | 20.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd417…9438backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd35c…0d5dbacked Yes | 73c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +791.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.