Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Nemiga Gaming (BO1) - Paragon Turbina Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd13a113a4df2d4c4ac847f3bf74bc1c82463eb4759ffb487c9f7d4b527b54c3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof Yellow Submarine, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Nemiga Gaming | 35c | 2,275$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.39 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Nemiga Gaming | 12c | 933.5$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.81 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…e84fbacked Yellow Submarine | 65c | 727.69$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.69 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…4b55backed Yellow Submarine | 65c | 715.38$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…ed83backed Yellow Submarine | 64c | 506.49$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.4 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked Yellow Submarine | 63c | 363.75$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.7 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -8.2wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Nemiga Gaming | 38c | 197.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Yellow Submarine | 54c | 169.83$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Yellow Submarine | 65c | 160.5$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Yellow Submarine | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yellow Submarine | 65c | 150.81$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Yellow Submarine | 65c | 136.32$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…b60ebacked Yellow Submarine | 65c | 124.63$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Nemiga Gaming | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Nemiga Gaming | 36c | 119.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Yellow Submarine | 65c | 107.66$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Nemiga Gaming | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Nemiga Gaming | 19c | 91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Nemiga Gaming | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Yellow Submarine | 65c | 61.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Yellow Submarine | 65c | 46.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Nemiga Gaming | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Nemiga Gaming | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yellow Submarine | 63c | 20.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yellow Submarine | 64c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Nemiga Gaming (BO1) - Paragon Turbina Group Athis page
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.