Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd151446c85d1c132c926defd21d13658a70dc0a82a5de4fe11664231ae2e8f42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5581…8495backed No | 1c | 24,911$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.11 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 6,148$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 11c | 1,075$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.16 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 60c | 363.68$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.48 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 13c | 288$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 68c | 229.36$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.28 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed No | 35c | 195.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 166.93$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae3…ada9backed Yes | 38c | 111.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.76 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 108.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 53c | 80.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2f…c7c1backed Yes | 17c | 75.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 55.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 53c | 53.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 65c | 49.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed Yes | 49c | 49.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 52c | 46.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 31c | 44.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 38c | 43.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 68c | 42.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed Yes | 33c | 39.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 40c | 37.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…128abacked No | 40c | 35.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 52c | 35.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 38c | 34.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…f334backed Yes | 48c | 30.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 29.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…83acbacked Yes | 43c | 29.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 69c | 21.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 52c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd849…6d86backed No | 64c | 19.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 71c | 18.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab9b…61e2backed Yes | 78c | 13.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or higher on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.