MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd15279d1904c5235d7dfa5ff67be1b93b9b70d580bc559074bd1c2f3dfa0d543
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 46c | 8,578$3,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,945.87 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 45c | 8,523$3,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,835.48 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 7,985$4,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,669.44 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5762…90eebacked Under | 55c | 5,455$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,454.55 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 55c | 1,501$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.51 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 57c | 1,200$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.48 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 1,195$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.98 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 1c | 985$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Under | 55c | 499.63$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.83 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 54c | 469.21$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.84 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 54c | 399.98$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.99 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 45c | 360$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 45c | 305.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.7 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 45c | 195.57$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 46c | 163.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 45c | 138.89$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 55c | 102.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…aebebacked Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 41c | 84.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…b1a1backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 54c | 55.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Mets vs. San Diego PadresNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.