MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a6d6853aef00ad985e7d7e294545a4c2f8cd8580f3e2f6800a36b5e5a8b55e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb91a…3987backed Under | 43c | 131,695$56,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75,066.12 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 57c | 107,136$61,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,067.55 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 57c | 14,719$8,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,321.94 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 57c | 6,000$3,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,420 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 57c | 2,746$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,565.25 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 49c | 2,354$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.91 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 43c | 2,031$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.74 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 57c | 2,026$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.89 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 1,502$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.76 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 40c | 1,195$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.46 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 59c | 951$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.09 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Over | 57c | 756.56$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.24 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Under | 44c | 750$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf5…829cbacked Under | 46c | 726.53$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.07 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 660.89$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.1 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 50c | 631.48$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.34 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 44c | 487$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.28 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 44c | 487$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.28 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 44c | 482.65$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.88 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00ed…0a9fbacked Under | 51c | 447.85$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.45 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Under | 44c | 405.88$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.62 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 57c | 287.93$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.12 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 57c | 240$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc8…6655backed Under | 43c | 238$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.66 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…1365backed Under | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 151 | 59.6%90 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 45c | 214.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.42 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a83…f2edbacked Under | 44c | 204.55$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3599…5338backed Under | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.82 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bd…0e7fbacked Under | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.82 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 57c | 157$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.49 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72db…abc9backed Under | 51c | 125.94$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.94 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Under | 44c | 117.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…bd11backed Under | 44c | 116.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.16 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Over | 55c | 102.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39e9…e2dfbacked Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…a1f2backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 52c | 92.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f6…0981backed Under | 44c | 85.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…e6bfbacked Under | 44c | 69.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Under | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…c0eebacked Under | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 47c | 67.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6600…d5fdbacked Under | 44c | 61.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0476…50b3backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 394 | 40.9%161 W · 233 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 48c | 48.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67de…bffcbacked Under | 43c | 45.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…a024backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 48c | 43.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 46c | 41.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 57c | 41.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdd…8271backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…d77abacked Over | 55c | 36.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…fb0fbacked Under | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1952…dbf9backed Under | 44c | 31.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…10cfbacked Under | 44c | 31.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Over | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc597…c695backed Over | 59c | 27.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…af22backed Under | 44c | 27.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Over | 48c | 25.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 43c | 24.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4238…3fbcbacked Under | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 52c | 22.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 48c | 22.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Over | 57c | 19.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Over | 57c | 17.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 57c | 17.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5this page
- New York Mets vs. San Diego PadresNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.