MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04a5d469f18b79af3dcf7fd9646b0888c25c252c87300804c51773977c94526b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 77c | 9,465$7,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,193 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 19c | 1,653$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.49 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 27c | 1,629$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.17 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 23c | 1,210$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.77 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Over | 22c | 947.41$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.82 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Over | 23c | 672.44$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.53 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 18c | 667.14$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.09 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 23c | 665.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.91 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 624.54$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.85 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 28c | 522.25$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.85 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 45c | 306.03$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.03 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 45c | 306.03$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.03 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bebbbacked Under | 78c | 211.04$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 208.82$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.69 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 19c | 151$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 28c | 141.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 63c | 140.01$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9af…f4f7backed Over | 22c | 131.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 22c | 124.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 38c | 117.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 71c | 117.21$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 109.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 56c | 103.68$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Over | 20c | 98.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 34c | 97.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4238…3fbcbacked Under | 36c | 81.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 37c | 78.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 23c | 74.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 23c | 63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 70c | 55.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed Over | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Under | 72c | 50.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +15.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 74c | 32.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 71c | 27.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Over | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 77c | 18.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 80c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5this page
- New York Mets vs. San Diego PadresNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.