Bundesliga · resolved market
Karlsruher SC vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd15dfb1130b4a6ecb597ec1ca9bfec36c162f3023e2594df1c5029493b51e431
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 43c | 1,806$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.11 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf541…ac67backed Over | 77c | 1,030$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 47c | 931.13$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.04 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 64c | 761.84$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.58 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 674.63$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.26 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd4…5faabacked Under | 37c | 520.11$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 455.77$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.76 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 72c | 368.87$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.54 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…8cb5backed Under | 31c | 311.25$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 19c | 258.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 63c | 246.17$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 35c | 225.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 66c | 179.68$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…7c5cbacked Under | 35c | 178.47$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 37c | 169.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 58c | 168.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 65c | 150.69$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 36 | 88.9%32 W · 4 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 76c | 129.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 63c | 119.34$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 35c | 115.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc952…3c89backed Over | 64c | 97.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f96…e7f0backed Over | 54c | 81.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 64c | 77.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 58c | 74.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 66c | 74.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…2f49backed Under | 24c | 55.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Over | 67c | 49.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 67c | 43.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 68c | 33.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Under | 35c | 29.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 53c | 28.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Karlsruher SC vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5this page
- Karlsruher SC vs. Hannover 96: O/U 3.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. Hannover 96: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.