CS2 · resolved market
Thunderpick WC: ECSTATIC vs. PARIVISION
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1e4dc4e618aca5c8f1076887646a3e7d125f7224cbb0dc7bc38bef34073a000
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof ECSTATIC, PARIVISION
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed ECSTATIC | 38c | 1,500$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d0…a970backed PARIVISION | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed PARIVISION | 69c | 1,100$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.06 | 208 | 56.3%117 W · 91 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed ECSTATIC | 30c | 690$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.3 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed ECSTATIC | 3c | 666.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked PARIVISION | 65c | 627.16$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.32 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked ECSTATIC | 60c | 600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed ECSTATIC | 62c | 550$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.49 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed PARIVISION | 67c | 414.29$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.21 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked PARIVISION | 72c | 230.01$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf69…b3ffbacked PARIVISION | 57c | 174.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.17 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -6.2wins | -0.22per pick | 66cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked PARIVISION | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc5…53c3backed PARIVISION | 67c | 112.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed ECSTATIC | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7c…b7dbbacked PARIVISION | 65c | 37.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 236 | 46.2%109 W · 127 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked PARIVISION | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.