Mls · resolved market
Will Austin FC win on 2026-07-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1ef60e0f46cd51323f780a7916e20946c098bd73dd1f89f1d0627489f29b9c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Yes | 20c | 10,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 80c | 5,684$4,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.8 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 20c | 5,381$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.13 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed No | 80c | 3,600$2,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 13c | 1,911$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.6 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 80c | 1,332$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.44 | 92 | 68.5%63 W · 29 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 80c | 1,299$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.77 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b56…23b4backed Yes | 20c | 1,241$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f1…668ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed No | 80c | 958.05$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.61 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 80c | 843.43$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.69 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 21c | 522$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.34 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 80c | 437.5$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 80c | 382.66$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 80c | 353.28$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked No | 80c | 312.5$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yes | 20c | 297.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 106 | 12.3%13 W · 93 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 20c | 286.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Yes | 19c | 270$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 80c | 247.63$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 20c | 231$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 20c | 170$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed No | 80c | 156.25$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…adc2backed No | 80c | 121.5$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56c…6afdbacked Yes | 18c | 108.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 44cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b8…233abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b8…0469backed Yes | 20c | 87.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2b…ccedbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…0fd6backed No | 79c | 74.32$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa866…be65backed No | 80c | 71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked No | 80c | 60.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 19c | 55.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…c07abacked No | 80c | 50.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked No | 80c | 50.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed No | 80c | 23.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed No | 80c | 18.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed No | 80c | 12.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.53 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Austin FC win on 2026-07-25?this page
- Will Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-07-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.