Mls · resolved market
Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-07-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dc3b780972b61250c9dc18eda674ba158ab81fc64de533ea4480899012132a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdc1…bdd8backed No | 47c | 10,745$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 57c | 3,598$2,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.92 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Yes | 51c | 3,040$1,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.38 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 55c | 2,514$1,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.62 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 44c | 1,832$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.26 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Yes | 56c | 1,659$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 43c | 1,582$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.81 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 52c | 1,054$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.66 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1e…5bb5backed No | 38c | 709$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 62c | 666$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.08 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49e…e5e8backed Yes | 57c | 657.89$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.89 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 63c | 607.51$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.82 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 57c | 604$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.05 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b9…90d0backed No | 39c | 535$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed No | 43c | 535$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 76c | 514.35$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.56 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb283…4501backed No | 36c | 499.81$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.08 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -73%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 63c | 386.59$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.19 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff7…7c28backed Yes | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5af8…db25backed Yes | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked Yes | 63c | 341.63$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.43 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 77c | 253$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Yes | 57c | 234.91$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Yes | 54c | 212$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.52 | 106 | 28.3%30 W · 76 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked No | 25c | 157$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2217…1660backed No | 45c | 138$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 12c | 133$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Yes | 57c | 132.74$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 24c | 113.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Yes | 54c | 106.02$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Yes | 55c | 99.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 24c | 89.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Yes | 56c | 87.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 64c | 83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 56c | 81.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked Yes | 57c | 79.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 28c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 71c | 52.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…02ccbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…e3a8backed Yes | 57c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 44c | 45.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f63…5dc6backed Yes | 57c | 42.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef1…4a76backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5837…8cdebacked Yes | 59c | 35.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…df76backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1d…9591backed Yes | 57c | 34.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc047…cce5backed No | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90fa…f353backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf51…7cccbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-07-25?this page
- Will Austin FC win on 2026-07-25?No won
- Will Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.