Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Metz vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1f4d2c7bc7edceb9843263a8adf2b1d56951e9c6899c89eeb49838b60b81462
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 12,279$8,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,834.92 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 30c | 8,317$2,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,470.65 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 54c | 2,024$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 24c | 911.21$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.21 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 61c | 825.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 39c | 443.93$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.8 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 52c | 403.7$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.92 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 358.82$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 42c | 215$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.59 | 123 | 39.8%49 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 74c | 198.29$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…e804backed Over | 58c | 192.07$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 59c | 164.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Under | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 42c | 69.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 38c | 64.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…31ebbacked Over | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Over | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 33c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8e…22ebbacked Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 59c | 39.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 58c | 35.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241c…5407backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Under | 51c | 31.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 59c | 25.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3e…303bbacked Over | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Metz vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Metz vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Metz vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Metz vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Stade Rennais FC 1901 (-1.5)FC Metz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.