Asian League · resolved market
Will Vissel Kōbe vs. Nagoya Grampus end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1f8f1d37456bb73e154576ca5c05024b55dd63b9df9cbb29d711b8a842d2d8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 64c | 8,152$5,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,896.88 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 36c | 3,898$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.08 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe96f…ff4bbacked Yes | 57c | 2,700$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbf…8c7bbacked Yes | 23c | 2,555$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 52c | 2,142$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.3 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…6a99backed No | 47c | 1,651$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.17 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 1,288$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.45 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f6…7bd7backed Yes | 28c | 860.11$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 66c | 546.15$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.04 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 57c | 415.96$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.13 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e19…caabbacked Yes | 28c | 351.36$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 77c | 283.78$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 70c | 266$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Yes | 62c | 207.07$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 25c | 188$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f4…c90bbacked Yes | 56c | 180.66$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 69c | 145.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 152 | 40.1%61 W · 91 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 60c | 127.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes | 19c | 98.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 72c | 84.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7d…21c7backed Yes | 13c | 84.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked No | 39c | 75.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +7.3wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7848…55d0backed Yes | 29c | 68.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd10…32e8backed Yes | 32c | 61.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…4616backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 26c | 55.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 117 | 64.1%75 W · 42 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55a7…24a0backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 66c | 48.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a74…6631backed Yes | 59c | 24.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 59c | 21.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd404…6d5dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa83c…f0f4backed No | 64c | 17.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vissel Kōbe vs. Nagoya Grampus end in a draw?this page
- Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-04-11?No won
- Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.