CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NEW VISION (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #1 Group D
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd221ef8258791d88841f90075c83eeaf92564dcb0c865c5cbd305c92bf9c9701
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NEW VISIONof Fire Flux Esports, NEW VISION
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Fire Flux Esports | 55c | 2,757$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.09 | 5,028 | 55%2,763 W · 2,265 L | +112.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Fire Flux Esports | 56c | 1,171$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.57 | 2,610 | 51.7%1,349 W · 1,261 L | +16.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…a47fbacked NEW VISION | 43c | 1,037$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.29 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…c9eabacked NEW VISION | 44c | 910$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe8…bb28backed NEW VISION | 45c | 668.51$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.91 | 220 | 44.5%98 W · 122 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…0c69backed Fire Flux Esports | 50c | 527.1$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 269 | 39%105 W · 164 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked NEW VISION | 56c | 515$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.09 | 2,205 | 47.6%1,049 W · 1,156 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Fire Flux Esports | 33c | 503.21$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.22 | 2,491 | 41.1%1,023 W · 1,468 L | -114.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked NEW VISION | 48c | 499.84$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.39 | 1,476 | 51.8%765 W · 711 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed NEW VISION | 60c | 453.44$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.37 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed NEW VISION | 42c | 421.03$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.03 | 5,810 | 37.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L | +78.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed NEW VISION | 53c | 400$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 4,220 | 49.2%2,078 W · 2,142 L | +61.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked NEW VISION | 55c | 399.99$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.77 | 3,217 | 51.3%1,649 W · 1,568 L | +89.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Fire Flux Esports | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 458 | 54.8%251 W · 207 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…59ffbacked Fire Flux Esports | 61c | 330.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed NEW VISION | 39c | 324.54$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.75 | 1,605 | 52.6%845 W · 760 L | +57.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc34…0953backed Fire Flux Esports | 26c | 311.94$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Fire Flux Esports | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc1…9a14backed NEW VISION | 44c | 286.48$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.43 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed NEW VISION | 44c | 268.37$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.26 | 206 | 43.2%89 W · 117 L | -13.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e83…00aabacked NEW VISION | 45c | 219.64$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.26 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Fire Flux Esports | 48c | 210.77$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 3,165 | 45.7%1,446 W · 1,719 L | -74.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed NEW VISION | 75c | 210$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 873 | 30.9%270 W · 603 L | -62.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked NEW VISION | 74c | 192.46$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 4,897 | 37.4%1,832 W · 3,065 L | -245.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked NEW VISION | 67c | 192.44$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 4,661 | 43.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa2…6df9backed Fire Flux Esports | 61c | 179.51$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 162 | 45.7%74 W · 88 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98eb…8c14backed NEW VISION | 45c | 169$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.37per pick | 52cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…6984backed Fire Flux Esports | 33c | 168.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83bd…3f07backed Fire Flux Esports | 60c | 167.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb5…4414backed Fire Flux Esports | 58c | 166$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…88f9backed NEW VISION | 46c | 159.07$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.9 | 463 | 54%250 W · 213 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ad…a123backed Fire Flux Esports | 39c | 158.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1d…c307backed NEW VISION | 44c | 151.77$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…d241backed NEW VISION | 44c | 139.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 404 | 39.6%160 W · 244 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed NEW VISION | 45c | 136.72$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6983…88c3backed NEW VISION | 39c | 133.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.15 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…fbfcbacked NEW VISION | 44c | 130$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd098…8d1cbacked NEW VISION | 45c | 120.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7129…4517backed NEW VISION | 46c | 110.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 1,069 | 37.8%404 W · 665 L | +35.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…f4a0backed Fire Flux Esports | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 835 | 56.2%469 W · 366 L | +31.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Fire Flux Esports | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 104 | 61.5%64 W · 40 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked NEW VISION | 53c | 95.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 2,330 | 42.5%991 W · 1,339 L | -71.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Fire Flux Esports | 56c | 93.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 378 | 48.1%182 W · 196 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked NEW VISION | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 912 | 45.8%418 W · 494 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…5d0cbacked NEW VISION | 41c | 87.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked NEW VISION | 47c | 86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 478 | 36.8%176 W · 302 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Fire Flux Esports | 40c | 83.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 2,599 | 47.8%1,242 W · 1,357 L | -30.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed NEW VISION | 45c | 63.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 211 | 51.7%109 W · 102 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed NEW VISION | 59c | 63.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 6,466 | 42.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L | -78.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked NEW VISION | 53c | 58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 1,830 | 41.6%762 W · 1,068 L | -68.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa005…abb1backed NEW VISION | 38c | 56.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked NEW VISION | 41c | 56.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…e006backed Fire Flux Esports | 27c | 43.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 390 | 40.8%159 W · 231 L | +30.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Fire Flux Esports | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 5,262 | 31.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L | -381.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Fire Flux Esports | 34c | 40.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 2,119 | 42.9%909 W · 1,210 L | -66.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked Fire Flux Esports | 54c | 40.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7618…24c6backed Fire Flux Esports | 48c | 39.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked NEW VISION | 43c | 35.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 5,474 | 46.9%2,565 W · 2,909 L | +38.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked NEW VISION | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 1,034 | 54.9%568 W · 466 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Fire Flux Esports | 62c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 2,084 | 47%979 W · 1,105 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Fire Flux Esports | 66c | 18.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 676 | 45%304 W · 372 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed NEW VISION | 74c | 14.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 4,040 | 50.9%2,057 W · 1,983 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NEW VISION (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #1 Group Dthis page
- Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NEW VISION - Map 1 WinnerNEW VISION won
- Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NEW VISION - Map 2 WinnerNEW VISION won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.