Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd256aa8c52252fd514240efbb07fa2a31ff92d49f2ce4b99cafa8f2d92c5daa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 492.77$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 8c | 488.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 411.39$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.64 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 29c | 404.98$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 379.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 346.85$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 74c | 143$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 101.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 16c | 98.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…5bdebacked Yes | 19c | 98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 93.01$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 18c | 78.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 14c | 76.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 32c | 74.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…dd30backed Yes | 23c | 70.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 69.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 27c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 58.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 56.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 19c | 52.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 32c | 47.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 74c | 46.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 73c | 37.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a0…0c7abacked No | 74c | 36.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 30.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 28.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 21.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 79c | 16.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed No | 78c | 15.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 79c | 13.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 13.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 77c | 13.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 73°F or below on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.