Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf08f4e7c7d90fa8775cf5a245ea221f8337787c9b3070f16ae2a7b282c6519b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 3c | 663.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 541.37$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.76 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 31c | 400.76$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.8 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 76c | 212.26$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.35 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 192$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 187.02$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.84 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 66c | 162.5$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.57 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 31c | 147.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 145.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 39c | 127.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.22 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 91.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 46c | 90.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 63c | 85.29$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a7…f4d9backed Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 26c | 76.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 72.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 67.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 66.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 61.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 60.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 45c | 54.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 52.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 51.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 50.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 25c | 49.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 24c | 49.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 56c | 47.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…5bdebacked No | 30c | 47.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 46.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 70c | 42.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 70c | 41.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 40.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 76c | 40.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 35c | 37.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 31c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 33.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 73c | 32.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 33c | 32.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 35c | 32.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 72c | 26.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a20…c1b5backed No | 74c | 26.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 80c | 25.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed Yes | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 62c | 23.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 62c | 23.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb998…a489backed No | 72c | 22.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 67c | 21.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…0d83backed No | 52c | 19.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51f…24e8backed No | 77c | 18.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked No | 76c | 18.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 72c | 16.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 62c | 16.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 71c | 15.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c3b4backed Yes | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 73°F or below on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.