South American Leagues · resolved market
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd274a98c3a747678e2cd9d7cad85757d1bb23563aa887abcb8358514dccc060e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over | 15c | 5,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,250.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +137.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 4,021$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,109.39 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…7300backed Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Under | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b8…99f3backed Under | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…22a0backed Under | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…2cecbacked Under | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 55c | 243.64$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.64 | 100 | 69%69 W · 31 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 42c | 225.83$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 55c | 181.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Over | 55c | 173.7$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.16 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 18c | 124.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.09 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 122.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 62c | 65.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 45c | 56.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 57c | 44.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 135 | 57%77 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 66c | 37.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e60…18dcbacked Over | 55c | 20.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 4.5this page
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Coritiba FBC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.