South American Leagues · resolved market
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2b7df4e0a073f01ac036631969ed6c3954e43cd51b6119a584fe4ecd91526eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 3,147$2,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,263.98 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 69c | 527.54$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.54 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 477.08$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.12 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 36c | 393.48$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.2 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe285…5754backed Under | 60c | 354.52$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 57c | 221.32$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.51 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 219.77$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 18c | 210.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.72 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 57c | 192.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 46c | 175.39$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.71 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Under | 27c | 140.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf1…796ebacked Over | 40c | 121.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…17e0backed Over | 40c | 117.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef4a…0314backed Over | 40c | 115.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06fd…2a05backed Over | 33c | 108$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Over | 40c | 87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…3105backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 33c | 49.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…9032backed Over | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…66e2backed Over | 75c | 30.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…4711backed Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…9815backed Over | 39c | 28.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked Under | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.44per pick | 55cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Under | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Under | 60c | 21.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…98edbacked Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 2.5this page
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Coritiba FBC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.