NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Flames: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2940fdb433510fcdc60909e41b0333a19289e93144866d595f25d15a0344f81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.14 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 1,299$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.17 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8126…9d18backed Under | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 44c | 295.45$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 42c | 234.83$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.63 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed Over | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.9wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Under | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 58c | 94.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 41c | 44.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 31c | 41.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…5ddabacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Under | 54c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…57f1backed Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 44c | 30.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f31…2d48backed Under | 59c | 25.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Under | 57c | 20.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 263 | 57.8%152 W · 111 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Flames: O/U 6.5this page
- Capitals vs. FlamesCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.