NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf520f33808a4b1c3efd3f9490e0628d37fa219f7a67ec68d3736f831e0392ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Capitals, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe45e…a161backed Capitals | 33c | 3,761$1,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58cf…7bfabacked Flames | 67c | 3,760$2,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,519.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbe…b84fbacked Capitals | 34c | 1,399$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.19 | 182 | 58.2%106 W · 76 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Flames | 50c | 1,323$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.51 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Flames | 66c | 1,180$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.8 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…ce01backed Capitals | 34c | 1,080$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Capitals | 32c | 912.28$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.31 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Capitals | 31c | 707.15$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.93 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Capitals | 34c | 707$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.62 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Capitals | 31c | 500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b56…edd6backed Flames | 66c | 400$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01c…1461backed Flames | 66c | 390$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Flames | 69c | 347.83$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb3…b7febacked Capitals | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…88f6backed Flames | 66c | 290$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Capitals | 35c | 250$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Capitals | 46c | 189.73$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.82 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc270…a462backed Flames | 65c | 153.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Flames | 68c | 117.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Flames | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Flames | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Flames | 68c | 88.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffb…245ebacked Capitals | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Flames | 69c | 73.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ad…8b71backed Flames | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Capitals | 36c | 53.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Flames | 64c | 53.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Capitals | 31c | 44.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Flames | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Flames | 67c | 38.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Capitals | 34c | 33.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Flames | 68c | 32.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Flames | 68c | 30.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Flames | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Flames | 66c | 28.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed Flames | 59c | 23.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Flames | 65c | 20.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…2498backed Flames | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Flames | 68c | 17.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 263 | 57.8%152 W · 111 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. FlamesCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.