Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2da8f4a5feda268063578f4c254f118e82fc199801487c21a22cd1b68a11999
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vici Gamingof Team Liquid, Vici Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6111…4742backed Team Liquid | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.99 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf964…a4cebacked Vici Gaming | 46c | 1,892$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…a7abbacked Team Liquid | 51c | 239.08$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.93 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Liquid | 55c | 222$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Vici Gaming | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Vici Gaming | 45c | 201.82$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Vici Gaming | 50c | 200.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Liquid | 50c | 186.84$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.42 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Team Liquid | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Team Liquid | 49c | 129.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…2acabacked Vici Gaming | 51c | 126.96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6f…7248backed Vici Gaming | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Vici Gaming | 45c | 104.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…0f42backed Team Liquid | 55c | 101.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 372 | 52.7%196 W · 176 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb5…55f6backed Team Liquid | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…706cbacked Vici Gaming | 46c | 59.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Vici Gaming | 48c | 54.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x183f…85e3backed Vici Gaming | 47c | 49.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Team Liquid | 55c | 44.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…b8e0backed Vici Gaming | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Team Liquid | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked Team Liquid | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 66.4%182 W · 92 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c04…2c55backed Vici Gaming | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked Team Liquid | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group ATeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 WinnerVici Gaming won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.