TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Vici Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$251,124
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$302,678

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,124 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 267 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Vici Gaming28c47,305$13,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,435.451,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid58c16,981$9,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,078.152,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Vici Gaming28c11,822$3,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,316.2810641.5%44 W · 62 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Liquid51c6,049$3,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,935.2696645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Team Liquid79c6,000$4,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,271.2317648.3%85 W · 91 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Vici Gaming35c6,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.9929042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Team Liquid68c5,331$3,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,685.3441056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Team Liquid65c5,053$3,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,768.5724153.1%128 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Team Liquid78c5,005$3,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.9432951.7%170 W · 159 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Vici Gaming21c4,548$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.2388539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4574…273dbacked Vici Gaming19c4,500$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.5512630.2%38 W · 88 L-13.5wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Liquid61c4,196$2,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,620.6660349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd331…733cbacked Team Liquid71c3,800$2,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.7616550.3%83 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Team Liquid65c3,688$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.8556955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2495…28f5backed Team Liquid55c3,640$1,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,651.499161.5%56 W · 35 L+0.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Vici Gaming45c3,500$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,57534544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Liquid64c3,415$2,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224.191,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Vici Gaming34c3,356$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.211,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Vici Gaming51c3,306$1,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,687.715848.1%76 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaaa…ca7dbacked Team Liquid62c3,203$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,204.714652.2%24 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Vici Gaming35c3,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05069644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Team Liquid75c2,992$2,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.8415144.4%67 W · 84 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Vici Gaming39c2,869$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.5362650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Liquid74c2,668$1,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.952,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Liquid40c2,500$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.6179959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Vici Gaming14c2,500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35014515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Team Liquid65c2,069$1,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.0235951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Team Liquid74c2,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52053764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Vici Gaming29c2,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57064744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Vici Gaming31c1,970$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.737945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Team Liquid69c1,895$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.6639343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30da…a11dbacked Vici Gaming22c1,818$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006031.7%19 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed Team Liquid68c1,804$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.418954%102 W · 87 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Vici Gaming27c1,768$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.424932.7%16 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Team Liquid65c1,737$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.9241351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Team Liquid76c1,711$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.5320367%136 W · 67 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24b8…6a66backed Team Liquid48c1,618$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.622958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Team Liquid75c1,528$1,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.5619242.7%82 W · 110 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba06…8024backed Team Liquid69c1,500$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46515950.3%80 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Vici Gaming19c1,446$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.7737832.5%123 W · 255 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Vici Gaming46c1,407$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.0255751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Liquid68c1,388$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.9895342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Liquid66c1,324$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.5949455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a4f…9b0cbacked Vici Gaming76c1,316$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008250%41 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Vici Gaming35c1,288$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.9231547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Team Liquid39c1,282$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.057342.5%31 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Liquid64c1,237$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.381,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Liquid78c1,234$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.691,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Vici Gaming28c1,200$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.596245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked Team Liquid51c1,200$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.9916541.2%68 W · 97 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Liquid73c1,197$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.131,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b5…205abacked Vici Gaming5c1,077$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5031953.9%172 W · 147 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Vici Gaming32c1,062$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.1448539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Liquid66c1,054$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.022,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Team Liquid69c1,017$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.456852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Vici Gaming22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22046240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4af…7dc0backed Vici Gaming1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-75.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Vici Gaming37c927.98$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.4837223.1%86 W · 286 L-38.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Liquid64c913.27$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.11,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Team Liquid76c800$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19261548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Vici Gaming36c790.82$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28455251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb11…8f3fbacked Team Liquid79c766.31$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.9310551.4%54 W · 51 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f07…53d1backed Team Liquid41c731.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.7121739.2%85 W · 132 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Vici Gaming22c700$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1514542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb665…ed24backed Vici Gaming29c693.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008540%34 W · 51 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b97…5521backed Vici Gaming22c671.82$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.072524%6 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a0…ef1dbacked Team Liquid78c611.59$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.55250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Liquid73c600$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.021,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Team Liquid50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30067555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Liquid68c594$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.0886659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Vici Gaming32c570.31$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18026843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Liquid61c566.68$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.561,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e78…1a6fbacked Team Liquid78c552.95$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.651250%6 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfee…ed1fbacked Vici Gaming55c544.28$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.4310618.9%20 W · 86 L-14.0wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-52%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Vici Gaming41c535.38$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.891,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a0d…40cabacked Team Liquid76c522.66$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.445976.3%45 W · 14 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd0cc…ce77backed Vici Gaming21c516.75$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.522445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xace6…5556backed Team Liquid50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25023347.2%110 W · 123 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Vici Gaming34c500$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.4422727.3%62 W · 165 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae00…6af8backed Team Liquid78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101060%6 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x428f…8175backed Team Liquid51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2452100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde85…6b38backed Vici Gaming18c500$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.231637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Vici Gaming20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010048%48 W · 52 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Team Liquid68c499.99$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16020145.3%91 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Liquid68c476.99$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.391,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Vici Gaming25c476.77$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.1926741.9%112 W · 155 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Liquid79c474.15$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.981,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Liquid73c470.91$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.2345750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Liquid74c470.22$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.2489749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Vici Gaming41c456.08$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.2453139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x43dc…86e1backed Vici Gaming33c454.55$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15024244.6%108 W · 134 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed Team Liquid75c434.32$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.5847548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed Team Liquid70c431.99$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.9229466%194 W · 100 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c2…a16ebacked Team Liquid77c419.88$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.8838167.2%256 W · 125 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Vici Gaming53c419.01$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.0368649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc9…e444backed Team Liquid80c411.19$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.2413228.8%38 W · 94 L-9.7wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-40%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa949…7f5bbacked Team Liquid74c402.85$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.8519849%97 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37a1…bedfbacked Vici Gaming50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013844.9%62 W · 76 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Vici Gaming50c387.22$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.6161449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44c8…a9ffbacked Team Liquid76c371.3$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.83633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-44.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.