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South American Leagues · resolved market

CA Aldosivi vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,232
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,200

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,232 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf6a6…a6d3backed Under75c1,710$1,287 inWon+$422.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Over9c1,198$113 inLost-$112.9612827.3%35 W · 93 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under74c886.63$658 inWon+$228.328,17548.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L+27.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over23c606.49$139 inLost-$139.492,38851.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L-9.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over60c305$183 inLost-$18317946.9%84 W · 95 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Over65c202$131 inLost-$131.315459.7%92 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a6d…b3febacked Over28c150$42 inLost-$42911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-65.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb87…88d1backed Over64c139$89 inLost-$88.961361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Over53c96.23$51 inLost-$516339.7%25 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc716…f0d7backed Over63c95$60 inLost-$59.851560%9 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb29…ea29backed Over23c70.15$16 inLost-$16.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4dc…d394backed Over63c63$40 inLost-$39.691741.2%7 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.22per pick63cpaid-33.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x00fe…eff7backed Over64c47$30 inLost-$30.081855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…2f86backed Under37c44$16 inWon+$27.72560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25c3…eb62backed Under36c37$13 inWon+$23.68650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14c2…6070backed Under37c34$12 inWon+$21.57666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+30.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30ee…5d12backed Under36c31$11 inWon+$19.84475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+56.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9ab…8137backed Under36c30$11 inWon+$19.2650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeff8…1bcfbacked Over63c22$14 inLost-$13.86560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.