Tennis · resolved market
ITF Cordenons: Francesca Curmi vs Martina Trevisan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd300d12a4faf796b977af991bd4169442c6b28d5cdcd03d23de267524e74f7c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Martina Trevisanof Francesca Curmi, Martina Trevisan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Martina Trevisan | 70c | 1,747$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.79 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Francesca Curmi | 28c | 1,443$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.47 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…cf7cbacked Martina Trevisan | 72c | 409.72$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.72 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…fb10backed Martina Trevisan | 58c | 402.44$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.44 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b0…5294backed Martina Trevisan | 74c | 400.78$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.2 | 466 | 50.2%234 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Francesca Curmi | 42c | 359.35$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.87 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a37…6c95backed Francesca Curmi | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Martina Trevisan | 69c | 348.19$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.91 | 243 | 29.6%72 W · 171 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Francesca Curmi | 35c | 259.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Martina Trevisan | 63c | 252.49$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.42 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Francesca Curmi | 28c | 207.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Francesca Curmi | 35c | 145.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a6…2a4bbacked Martina Trevisan | 68c | 144.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…492cbacked Martina Trevisan | 70c | 141.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 179 | 72.6%130 W · 49 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Francesca Curmi | 35c | 122.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2,179 | 37%807 W · 1,372 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaff…688cbacked Francesca Curmi | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Martina Trevisan | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 1,766 | 45.9%810 W · 956 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Francesca Curmi | 30c | 98.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Francesca Curmi | 35c | 94.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Martina Trevisan | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Francesca Curmi | 32c | 72.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 3,726 | 42.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L | -48.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Martina Trevisan | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca0…4b69backed Martina Trevisan | 69c | 65.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…9888backed Martina Trevisan | 57c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 1,222 | 55%672 W · 550 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…9592backed Martina Trevisan | 56c | 51.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Francesca Curmi | 44c | 51.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 3,319 | 48.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L | -52.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Martina Trevisan | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 911 | 63.9%582 W · 329 L | +66.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked Francesca Curmi | 44c | 43.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 278 | 55%153 W · 125 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Francesca Curmi | 49c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 2,135 | 56%1,195 W · 940 L | +41.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Martina Trevisan | 73c | 34.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…3abfbacked Francesca Curmi | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 267 | 34.1%91 W · 176 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Martina Trevisan | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 1,036 | 54.2%562 W · 474 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Martina Trevisan | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf19f…8d44backed Martina Trevisan | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Martina Trevisan | 71c | 17.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.