Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd30b55f7ecf9edf2667b0d2ab61c11b59dba5d61d6b8497b15737bdbd26820b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Astini+5, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,933 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf138…c953backed Astini+5 | 1c | 1,610$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 69c | 900$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed Astini+5 | 61c | 599.99$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.81 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Astini+5 | 60c | 401.86$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.91 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Pipsqueak+4 | 44c | 384.85$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.51 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Astini+5 | 21c | 342.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 33c | 326.58$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.81 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Astini+5 | 25c | 310.33$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed Pipsqueak+4 | 78c | 282$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Pipsqueak+4 | 74c | 270.8$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Astini+5 | 72c | 254.35$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.01 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10a…46b5backed Astini+5 | 75c | 170$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.02 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Pipsqueak+4 | 75c | 167.44$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…999bbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 62c | 160.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…22d0backed Astini+5 | 57c | 120.01$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 34c | 109.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Astini+5 | 37c | 107$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Astini+5 | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Astini+5 | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec5d…11d5backed Pipsqueak+4 | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Astini+5 | 66c | 94.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc332…59a9backed Pipsqueak+4 | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 78.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Pipsqueak+4 | 36c | 78.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 34c | 52.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 51.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Astini+5 | 50c | 50.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Astini+5 | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Astini+5 | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Pipsqueak+4 | 62c | 35.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54b4…748abacked Astini+5 | 48c | 25.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 130 | 26.2%34 W · 96 L | -15.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 WinnerAstini+5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.