Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4672e2cc08b739f47fc1256104b2f0048b3b2de2edca8942384bd38820c80f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Astini+5, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,538 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe9…c6dcbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 54c | 957.03$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Astini+5 | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Pipsqueak+4 | 54c | 388.5$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.25 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Astini+5 | 50c | 294.17$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.6 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Astini+5 | 54c | 293.48$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.48 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed Astini+5 | 22c | 269.46$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Astini+5 | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Astini+5 | 40c | 159.21$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeabe…5910backed Pipsqueak+4 | 55c | 126.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa167…ebf9backed Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 83.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x159a…d8dbbacked Astini+5 | 49c | 78.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Pipsqueak+4 | 31c | 63.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…7d2cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 47c | 50.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Pipsqueak+4 | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…1e8bbacked Astini+5 | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…66d1backed Astini+5 | 69c | 38.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9c7dbacked Astini+5 | 69c | 24.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 367 | 61%224 W · 143 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Pipsqueak+4 | 56c | 22.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group B Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 WinnerAstini+5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.