Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x056f7e3958c8effefd7878e35323f76c24054692196174393eaaf77a8dbbf81a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astini+5of Astini+5, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,696 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Pipsqueak+4 | 55c | 3,524$1,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,946.57 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed Astini+5 | 45c | 2,275$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.98 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Pipsqueak+4 | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 104 | 0%0 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Astini+5 | 23c | 466.86$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.48 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Astini+5 | 39c | 459.02$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed Astini+5 | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Pipsqueak+4 | 52c | 380$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.6 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Pipsqueak+4 | 52c | 300$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Astini+5 | 60c | 214.77$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.77 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked Astini+5 | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 251 | 47.4%119 W · 132 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadf8…1e82backed Astini+5 | 50c | 114$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Pipsqueak+4 | 55c | 107.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 208 | 58.7%122 W · 86 L | +22.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Astini+5 | 50c | 105$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Astini+5 | 64c | 88.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Pipsqueak+4 | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Astini+5 | 54c | 51.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Pipsqueak+4 | 55c | 51.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Astini+5 | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Astini+5 | 75c | 44.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Astini+5 | 46c | 44.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group B Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.