Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd33da360a73723d86840d4b8c1b993f6aaf4a606d0fe46a14c29ecbb0581ac68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 2,428$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.11 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 564.42$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.59 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed No | 64c | 558.85$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.1 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 12c | 457.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 14c | 444.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.59 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 12c | 436.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 21c | 327.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.33 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 11c | 316.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 282.04$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed Yes | 15c | 249.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 39c | 205.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.33 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 20c | 202.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 198.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Yes | 24c | 172.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 168.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 149.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 142.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…b890backed Yes | 53c | 142.73$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 138.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…8e18backed Yes | 58c | 123.11$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc174…9d97backed Yes | 38c | 122.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 46c | 113.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 59c | 109.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 102.33$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 37c | 99.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 30c | 95.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 94.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 54c | 91.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 38c | 81.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172e…997fbacked No | 80c | 81.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…9534backed Yes | 53c | 80.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed Yes | 42c | 78.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 60c | 74.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 56c | 73.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…e1bfbacked Yes | 50c | 67.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 65.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 46c | 65.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…0c2bbacked No | 52c | 63.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 47c | 56.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 55c | 54.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 32c | 51.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…ed3fbacked Yes | 33c | 50.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 30c | 49.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…92c3backed Yes | 21c | 49.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 23c | 47.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…555fbacked Yes | 47c | 47.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 51c | 46.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 42c | 45.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 66c | 44.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…087ebacked Yes | 45c | 44.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 50c | 40.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 36c | 37.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 36c | 37.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2a…ba61backed No | 60c | 35.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 39c | 34.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 51c | 34.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 56c | 33.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 39c | 32.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cda…1d96backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 59c | 27.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 52c | 27.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 55c | 25.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 24.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…c700backed No | 64c | 22.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 22.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 20.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebd2…0d5dbacked No | 57c | 19.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 73c | 15.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 57°F or below on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.