Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 57°F or below on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c904bd0429e30c15b2ebf8de7005f93b100c165d11ad7d25a67dc1d1cdfe46e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb74…997cbacked No | 5c | 8,995$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.86 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 56c | 1,899$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.47 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 64c | 1,539$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.11 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 28c | 911.38$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.6 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 61c | 875.39$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.3 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 756.65$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 26c | 702.51$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.64 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 691.84$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.08 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 63c | 438.07$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.11 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 58c | 434.44$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.09 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 63c | 393.85$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 14c | 369.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.13 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 66c | 362.91$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.76 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 27c | 344.81$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.18 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 29c | 332.27$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.11 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 61c | 331.71$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.84 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Yes | 55c | 298.62$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.96 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 285.32$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 20c | 282.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.37 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 37c | 272.02$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.37 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…b7e0backed Yes | 19c | 262.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.65 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 258.91$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 45c | 233.04$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.95 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 44c | 222.55$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.15 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 216.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 7c | 214.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.19 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 11c | 207.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.36 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 78c | 200.4$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.59 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 54c | 196.81$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.14 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…8e18backed Yes | 38c | 183.32$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.95 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 171.04$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…9e98backed Yes | 22c | 169.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…63f0backed Yes | 40c | 161.83$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Yes | 57c | 160.93$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.46 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 72c | 160.1$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.61 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 39c | 143.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.07 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…431fbacked Yes | 39c | 141.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.26 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 25c | 140.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.11 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 34c | 140.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.76 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…e1b0backed Yes | 74c | 139.74$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 136.68$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…86d9backed Yes | 11c | 132.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.79 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 12c | 132$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.51 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 44c | 130.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 57c | 116.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa73…c2c4backed Yes | 11c | 111.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.17 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 110.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.91 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…f990backed Yes | 15c | 108.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.46 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759e…4d38backed Yes | 33c | 106.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.56 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…63a1backed Yes | 14c | 104.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…5401backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0038…ad0dbacked Yes | 66c | 96.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 45c | 95.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 43c | 95.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 68c | 91.84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 27c | 91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe13…a594backed Yes | 13c | 89.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.89 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 75c | 89.11$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 36c | 87.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 41c | 84.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed No | 55c | 83.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed Yes | 39c | 82.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 62c | 81.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 23c | 77.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 51c | 76.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3193…cc5abacked Yes | 74c | 74.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 67c | 72.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 52c | 69.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…ed3fbacked Yes | 50c | 67.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…92c3backed No | 74c | 65.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 74c | 64.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…f707backed Yes | 68c | 63.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x172e…997fbacked Yes | 41c | 63.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd782…a950backed No | 79c | 62.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked Yes | 44c | 60.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…e50ebacked Yes | 31c | 59.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 55c | 57.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 26c | 53.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 29c | 52.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 73c | 52.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 45c | 52.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 55c | 51.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 41c | 50.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…87d1backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…0927backed No | 77c | 49.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…8be6backed Yes | 50c | 47.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 40c | 45.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9517…6d45backed No | 68c | 41.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466c…05f0backed Yes | 34c | 32.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 42c | 32.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…cecfbacked Yes | 39c | 31.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 52c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x196c…2a0dbacked No | 74c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 57°F or below on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.