Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe77a81038359aad9a9ead31964355d11912d359d349f39f78b6b2f30684aaec0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 700.65$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 64c | 629.91$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.46 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 503.88$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.68 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 326.87$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 55c | 299.69$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.26 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 67c | 264.01$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.12 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 258.35$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 246.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 32c | 245.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 30c | 233.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 80c | 198.49$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 79c | 196.11$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 40c | 193.57$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 55c | 192.93$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.17 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 29c | 186.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 169.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 50c | 163.17$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.89 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 143.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 38c | 141.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 129.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 60c | 122.44$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.86 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 120.69$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 36c | 119.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.39 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 56c | 115.24$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 111.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 64c | 106.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a8…7e66backed Yes | 55c | 104.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 50c | 102.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 59c | 99.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 47c | 98.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 27c | 98.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 33c | 98.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 26c | 98.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 56c | 92.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 37c | 90.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 88.66$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 52c | 79.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 78.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 76.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 58c | 75.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 70c | 69.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 67.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 29c | 67.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 63.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 31c | 61.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 23c | 59.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 59.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 58.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 54c | 57.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc174…9d97backed Yes | 51c | 56.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 54.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 68c | 54.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 54.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb99c…177abacked Yes | 31c | 53.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 33c | 52.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 33c | 52.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 46c | 51.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…cdddbacked Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 71c | 49.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 48.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 44c | 48.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…555fbacked Yes | 27c | 48.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…cecfbacked Yes | 39c | 48.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 66c | 47.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…431fbacked No | 57c | 46.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 71c | 46.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x172e…997fbacked Yes | 62c | 46.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…e15bbacked Yes | 33c | 45.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 36c | 44.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 56c | 44.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 57c | 44.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 59c | 42.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 31c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 73c | 39.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc409…2267backed Yes | 53c | 35.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef7e…aee8backed Yes | 35c | 35.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 74c | 33.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 74c | 32.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ac…9958backed No | 54c | 31.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +317.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5769…7060backed Yes | 40c | 30.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…109fbacked No | 75c | 30.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 35c | 29.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 49c | 29.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cda…1d96backed Yes | 38c | 28.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…c700backed No | 57c | 28.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43c7…18dbbacked No | 68c | 28.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 26.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed No | 76c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda26…8fefbacked No | 74c | 22.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed No | 51c | 21.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 69c | 20.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…d0a6backed No | 77c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 80c | 14.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 57°F or below on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.