TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,441
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,754

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,441 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes32c700.65$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.24,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed No64c629.91$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.4622450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes35c503.88$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.684,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes30c326.87$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.718,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d21…b569backed No55c299.69$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.2614158.2%82 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No67c264.01$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.122,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c258.35$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes25c246.38$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.179,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes32c245.01$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.751,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes30c233.22$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7735233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No80c198.49$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7619753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No79c196.11$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.842469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes40c193.57$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.541,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes55c192.93$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1754043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes29c186.69$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.141,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes34c169.22$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.311,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes50c163.17$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8919338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes20c143.83$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3686226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes38c141.64$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.091,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes8c129.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes60c122.44$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8625344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No64c120.69$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.084,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x652d…6063backed No36c119.53$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.399322.6%21 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No56c115.24$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8265625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes23c111.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.185,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5147…f078backed No64c106.54$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.666845.6%31 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a8…7e66backed Yes55c104.77$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.442147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes50c102.22$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.496240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff3…a737backed Yes41c99.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416041.7%25 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No59c99.59$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7352155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes47c98.67$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2754154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes27c98.58$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3166926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes33c98.57$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5368335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes26c98.49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5649038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Yes56c92.73$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7327540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes37c90.43$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5546444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No75c88.66$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.41,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No52c79.73$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.592,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No67c78.46$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.552,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes27c76.47$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.877,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No58c75.98$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7945162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No70c69.29$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7957038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No66c67.73$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.21,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes29c67.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.632830.5%100 W · 228 L+1.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c63.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.633,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes31c61.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0859125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked Yes23c59.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6693734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No72c59.37$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.342,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No77c58.26$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No54c57.53$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5466944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc174…9d97backed Yes51c56.23$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.531435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c54.45$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No68c54.37$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.391,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes32c54.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb99c…177abacked Yes31c53.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.61612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes33c52.68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4672837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes33c52.23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0357747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes46c51.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8844757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xaf3a…cdddbacked Yes31c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick36cpaid-83.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No71c49.13$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1397570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No62c48.8$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.354,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes44c48.77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3670133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83d8…555fbacked Yes27c48.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.12343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x990e…cecfbacked Yes39c48.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.882568%17 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No66c47.24$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.881,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c71…431fbacked No57c46.68$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.072969%20 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4254…1d02backed No71c46.64$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7412363.4%78 W · 45 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x172e…997fbacked Yes62c46.21$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.872744.4%12 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c6…e15bbacked Yes33c45.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.092025%5 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+57.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes36c44.97$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1425037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked No56c44.93$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7731170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No57c44.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.272952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No71c42.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2562770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No59c42.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.121,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3d7…e878backed Yes31c42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1723743%102 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.872466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No73c39.08$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4321676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc409…2267backed Yes53c35.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef7e…aee8backed Yes35c35.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.392944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaaf…051bbacked No74c33.9$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9613160.3%79 W · 52 L+13.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No74c32.91$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5611977.3%92 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4ac…9958backed No54c31.06$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.421533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+317.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5769…7060backed Yes40c30.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e07…109fbacked No75c30.02$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.613852.6%20 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed Yes35c29.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4726566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes49c29.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2335133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cda…1d96backed Yes38c28.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.962250%11 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x495f…c700backed No57c28.61$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.344100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+119.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x43c7…18dbbacked No68c28.5$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.141361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick72cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No73c26.69$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.212,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x162e…fe52backed No76c25.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.164037.5%15 W · 25 L-6.8wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-38.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c24.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.742,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda26…8fefbacked No74c22.11$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.731353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No71c21.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1353547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed No51c21.09$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4347738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No69c20.7$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4227464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5245…d0a6backed No77c19.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.49875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+19.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No80c14.7$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.9618272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.