Commodities · resolved market
Silver (SI) Up or Down on January 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd37ac9bbb1c8dadb88d22e54d185f9adb29762515b2b5dbb09b525bfb172eea9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Down | 1c | 8,915$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 82 | 62.2%51 W · 31 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…fb86backed Down | 1c | 1,251$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed49…721abacked Down | 26c | 1,141$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 3c | 883$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed Up | 76c | 612.97$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Up | 69c | 502.42$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.6 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x31c4…82d9backed Down | 36c | 280$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851c…925dbacked Up | 64c | 280$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Down | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Up | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Up | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…b8f1backed Up | 80c | 90.75$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed Down | 54c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…1796backed Up | 46c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Up | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…ca94backed Up | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a0…63a4backed Down | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…bd9fbacked Down | 47c | 49.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +233%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26f3…e6a3backed Up | 63c | 31.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4f…c532backed Up | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.